Politekon’s Hub

April 17, 2009

Without IFIs, There are no tax havens

Filed under: Uncategorized — raulmauro @ 1:56 pm
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Two main agreements reached by the G20 in its recent meeting held in London that should be welcomed: The reliance on a renewed leadership of the IMF and Multilateral Development Banks to support the countries that will be affected by the world recession within a new regulatory framework of international finance; and the final elimination of tax havens all over the world, aiming at protecting fiscal income.

Latin America has suffered the ideological attacks of the IMF in association with the World Bank and Inter American Development Bank (IDB) trough the implementation of policy recommendations that were pernicious for tax collection, such as the following: Tax reforms focussing on improving the efficiency of tax management rather than increasing taxes. Achieving fiscal balance by means of streamlining public expenditure rather than by increasing fiscal income. Arguing that fiscal decentralisation may put the fiscal discipline that demanded so much effort from Latin American states at risk, so a fiscal policy should be re-centralised.

These policies have brought as a consequence an ill-fated competition between countries in Latin America over which one has the best and most efficient tax collection system, instead of coordinating a regional policy aimed at levying a tax on excess-profits earned by transnational companies in highly profitable economic sectors such as mining, oil, and in recent years – owing to financial speculation – the food sector.

Thus, IFIs have been contributing to the advent of tax havens in the region. According to a study by Christian Aid, in spite of it not being possible to consider some Latin American countries as tax havens, it has been shown that several of these countries have established privileged tax systems to promote foreign direct investment (FDI). Another study carried out by the Tax Justice Network, has shown that some of the currently known tax havens (according to the recent list published by the OECD) are well integrated into the trade system of raw materials between Latin America and Europe, thus helping large corporations to avoid payment of taxes necessary for the development of the region.

Finally, IFIs have constantly recommended Latin American governments streamline social expenditure with supposedly unbiased instruments such as the focalisation of expenditure, instead of letting Latin American governments introduce changes to their tax systems in order to collect more taxes to finance their expenditure. If any of these governments dared to discuss or propose this, IFIs pointed out that they were introducing ‘political noise’ to the model, thus immediately making the country less attractive for FDI and for the loans that IFIs may continue to grant them. With this kind of discourse, the IFIs managed to supress any specific initiative aimed at fairly increasing fiscal income by governments.

The immediate consequence of these processes is that there has not been an effective redistribution of domestic income, thus increasing inequality. Social conflicts have been a clear example of this discontent, to the point that the IDB has identified this stage of the Latin American economic boom – without improvements in terms of redistribution – as an unhappy growth paradox. This is a problem that could have been avoided provided a fiscal decentralisation policy aimed at further linking local governments to their citizens had been implemented. However, IFIs recommended greater centralisation in order to ensure fiscal balance at the expense of the decentralisation process.

In short, until now IFIs have promoted a growth model without redistribution for Latin America. On the other hand, tax havens have proliferated, have been reinforced and have been presented as an aim to be reached by developing countries. In this sense, the perspective proposed by the G20 – given the previous experience of the region – is quite illusory since it appears to be contradictory. Unless the reform of IFIs is true, and finance is put at the service of humankind.

Read this at the Bretton Woods Project.

September 16, 2008

… and what about inequality?

Filed under: Paper review — raulmauro @ 2:41 pm

“World inequality has increased more than we thought”. This is the statement the World Bank has not yet dared to make, after having disclosed the meagre results of the struggle against poverty worldwide and the little or nothing it has done to fulfill its mission. Is there evidence of the fact that inequality has increased more than what is acknowledged based on the adjustments made by the Bank for the strict comparability of households at global level? Yes, and too much of it. Nevertheless, I will just point out two facts.

In the first place, there is the problem regarding the poor effectiveness of Living Standards Measurement Studies to obtain information from the families and people that are owners of the capital of a certain country, in spite of having been selected by means of a sample design (1). This is a problem that has been contemplated on several occasions by Bank researchers, for which they have sought very witty solutions, with surprising results. In fact, in an applied pilot (2) on the reality of the United States (using the Current Population Survey of March 2001) it was found that the correction of data significantly increased the Gini coefficient from 45.05% to 50.76%, that is, there was an increase superior to 12%. A second correction for the same data (3) showed that the impact continued to produce a level of inequality that was higher to the one initially registered by increasing the Gini coefficient from 45.05% to 48.29%. In both cases, the poverty indicator had a scarcely significant impact, but it remains clear that it is impossible to hold back the evidence regarding the fact that inequality is higher than initially estimated.

In the second place, we have evidence of a large increase in the transfer of financial resources from developing to developed countries, which after a decade reaches the amount of 658 billion dollars in 2006 (4). This is mainly explained by two components that accentuate inequality among people at global level: i) the increase in profits credited to transnational companies from branches located in developing countries, and ii) the payment of interests by way of external public debt service. In both cases, the transfer of financial resources ends up favouring the people and families that are owners of capital and belong to those population sectors with the highest income levels in developed countries, to the detriment of the opportunities and consumption of people and families belonging to the poorest sectors of developing countries. This type of data cannot be collected by a timid living standard survey, but rather through the balance of payments. However, there still remains a problem in what regards to the difficulty in assigning the income resulting from transfers made, and which will be eventually enjoyed by the owners of capital.     

In short, the processes increasing inequality persist, and as a result, said inequality has aggravated much more than initially expected. The World Bank will soon present more accurate information in this respect. Meanwhile, it is nessary to find specific opportunities to reach a new agreement aimed at building a fairer world without poverty.


(1) Technically known as the problem of selective compliance in the application of surveys. Generally, the richest families refuse to receive surveyors because they have a high time opportunity cost to devote time to answer a long survey such as the one measuring living standards, or because they are afraid of letting a stranger meticulously investigate their business deals, even if sent by a State agency.

(2) Mistiaen J. & Martin Ravallion, (2003) “Survey compliance and the distribution of income”. Policy Research Working Paper 2956. Development Research Group. The World Bank.

(3) Idem, page 17.

(4) Based on information provided by the World Economic Outlook, IMF, September 2006.

Read this also in Choike.

August 26, 2008

BM: La pobreza era mayor de lo que pensábamos

Filed under: Paper review — raulmauro @ 9:19 pm
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El Banco Mundial acaba de publicar un estudio (descargar aquí, pdf) donde señala que el número de pobres estimados al 2005, en realidad son 400 millones más. Tampoco tenemos 17% de población en pobreza, sino más bien 26% sumida en tal situación. Estos hallazgos resultaron luego de una sesuda revisión realizada por dos de los investigadores más importantes del Banco, donde se ha utilizado técnicas de comparación sofisticadas entre países elaborados por la International Comparison Project (ICP).
La nota periodística titulada “El mundo en desarrollo era más pobre de lo que pensábamos; pero no menos exitoso en la lucha contra la pobreza“, pone en evidencia la necesidad de revisar la investigación con un poco más de tranquilidad y detalle para evaluar los límites del trabajo y el mensaje real del mismo, es decir, respecto de lo que significa “pero no menos exitoso en la lucha contra la pobreza”. Se señala esto porque el periodo de referencia que ha sido revisado por el estudio comienza en 1981 y termina en el 2005. Pero sinceramente, yo no sé de qué grado de éxito se habla, si la sociedad civil global considera que en realidad no ha habido algo como tal.

Con todo, las principales actualizaciones metodólogicas que he podido identificar son:

  • El uso de una base de precios comparativa más confiable, utilizando la metodología PPP, para estimar los costos de vida comparables entre países. No obstante, el documento reconoce que estos se han estimado con referencia al costo de vida nacional, y no se ha diferenciado con el nivel subnacional.
  • El uso de una línea de pobreza más alta (el informe del 2000/2001 usaba la línea de USD 1.08, ahora se ha usado la línea de USD 1.25) que resulta de tomar la media aritmética de las lineas de pobreza nacionales de los 15 países más pobres en términos de su consumo per cápita.
  • La inclusión de países que antes no se encontraban en las estimaciones (el caso más notable, por sus dimensiones es China). De acuerdo con el estudio, se han comparado en total 116 paises. De estos, 14 tenían solo una encuesta, 18 tenían 2 encuestas, 14 tenian tres, mientras que 70 tenían cuatro o más, de los cuales 23 países tenían más de 10 encuestas aplicadas.
  • La estimación de las tasas de pobreza y del número de pobres por periodos trienales. Para completar la información de los años faltantes, se utilizaron algunas técnicas estadísticas que son muy cuestionables como por ejemplo, el haber imputado la tasa de crecimiento del consumo real percápita tomado de las cuentas nacionales del país en cuestión al consumo percápita de las encuestas, asumiendo que la desigualdad no ha cambiado.

A continuación, publico las cifras de pobreza tal y como están presentadas en el estudio señalado (he señalado con rojo lo que correspondería a las nuevas cifras de la pobreza, el resto el BM lo publica para que los entendidos puedan hacer un grueso análisis de sensibilidad de las estimaciones):


A nivel regional, tenemos los siguientes datos, destacando la línea que corresponde a América Latina, donde se comprueba que aunque la tasa de pobreza se ha reducido en aproximadamente 4 puntos porcentuales, el número de pobres ha aumentado ligeramente de 44.9 millones de personas a 45.1 millones:



Dos últimos comentarios sobre la investigación. En primer lugar, el énfasis que hace el mismo sobre la reducción de la pobreza en los países del Este Asiático y Pacífico, en contraste con el notable aumento de los pobres en la región del Africa Sub-Sahariana, sin poner en relieve lo que sucede en América Latina. En segundo lugar, la forma en cómo termina el informe, que pienso que el Banco busca que se le de un poco más de aliento (al menos dos años) para que realice su trabajo a favor de “un mundo libre de la pobreza” en medio del intenso cuestionamiento que vive (junto con el FMI y la OMC) porque precisamente no se ven sus resultados:

A pesar del progreso para reducir las demoras en la disponibilidad de datos de las encuestas, probablemente no será sino hasta el 2010 que podamos hacer estimaciones razonablemente confiables del impacto del incremento de los precios de los alimentos y los combustibles sobre la pobreza en el mundo. Hasta entonces, evaluaciones ex ante serán necesarias, basados en datos de la pre crisis y supuestos económicos. Tales evaluaciones sugieren que por lo menos en los pocos años del progreso reportado aquí ha sido erosionado desde el 2005.

El mundo no espera. Y ya se lo está haciendo saber.

July 17, 2008

Finance and Development: An inescapable congruence

Filed under: Meeting report — raulmauro @ 1:01 pm
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The recent UN meeting held with civil society last June 18, in the context of the Follow-up International Conference on Financing for Development, has gone over several of the speeches made within this space and, at the same time, has reinforced the actions aimed at solving the difficult global equation between finance and development, with a view to the declaration that may be obtained in Doha next November 2008.

A first speech, to which the papers by Vitalice Meja (AFRODAD), Lidy Napcil (Jubilee South) and Josefa Francisco (Development Alternatives with Women for a New Era) contributed, is that which claims the elimination of conditionalities on development aid; especially those associated to external debt cancellation and relief programmes. In both cases, it was evident that the assistance being currently given to developing countries has the nature of political and financial patronage, which limits (and in other cases, cuts short) their own efforts to overcome poverty and inequality issues. An aspect not analysed in depth, for instance, is the negative impact of the conditionality conceived as ‘positive’, when assistance is attached to gender issues. This sort of approach jeopardizes a broader notion of society development such as the mutual responsibility within families. In that sense, it is vitally important not only to appeal to an increase in the level of resources for development financing, but also to the need for implementing a reform concerning the goals and priorities of the assistance provided by wealthier countries to developing countries. This reform must nourish from the experiences containing best practices regarding management of official development aid, including the rendering of accounts as regards both the countries receiving aid and the Northern and Southern civil society. This would contribute to strengthtening democracy in those countries benefitting from development aid and debt programmes, by enabling them to select and implement their own development strategies based on key principles contained in documents such as the Monterrey Consensus and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

A second speech, of a more systemical order, is the one connected with the redefinition of the role played by the Bretton Woods international organizations compared to the poor performance these have had in order to overcome current global-scale financial, monetary and trade imbalance. José Antonio Ocampo’s paper was highly explicit in this regard. This would result from the excessive dependency on the international reserve system on a single national currency (the US dollar) and the lack of a global finance regulatory scheme, allowing for the coordination of macroeconomic policies between countries. The need to set forth the “dependency on a [non-domestic] global reserve currency, together with the creation of macroeconomic policy coordination mechanisms” as a remedy, and the adoption of a countercyclical approach for world financial regulation is therefore evident. This would be possible if there was an institutional regulatory scheme of global dimension, such as an international debt court where over-indebtedness cases could be brought forward, just as bankruptcy cases are dealt with in the existing courts nationwide, avoiding ad-hoc solutions tried out by the WB or the IMF, overburdened with excessive conditionalities and social and economic pressures.

In parallel with this discussion, there is the funding problem for mitigating and adapting humankind to climate change effects. This was Philo Morris’s contribution, a representative of the Society of Catholic Medical Missionaries. These effects, as will be noticed, may be conceived as ‘systemic’ to the world economic growth pattern and their financing must therefore issue from it, governed by the principle: “whoever pollutes must pay”. The proposed policy, in that regard, is that the Doha paper should formulate the creation of differentiated funds for financing programmes regarding adaptation and mitigation of adverse effects of climate change, in a holistic development approach which includes people and their environment; otherwise, the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) shall be jeopardized.

Another of the significant financing proposals regarding the achievement of MDGs came from Josep Xercavins, of the Ubuntu Forum Secretariat, who emphasized the dimensions of several ‘non-traditional’ development indicators. Some outstanding examples are, for instance, the annual amount allocated to International Development Aid (USD 103.7 billion), the United Nations, World Bank, and IMF annual administrative costs (USD 5.1 billion), the estimated bank loss owing to the financial crisis (USD 565 billion), the world military spending (USD 1158 billion), climate change adaptation costs (USD 50 billion), illicit capital flows (USD 1600 billion), migrant remittances (USD 240 billion), among others. Facing these figures, there appears a significant amount that might be collected (little more than USD 43 billion) at a very low rate (0.005%) applied to international financial transactions. This is the CCT tax (tax on financial transactions), whose antecedent is the Tobin tax proposal formulated by Nobel prize-winning economist James Tobin. This tax would not generate any imbalances in the huge capital masses being freely transferred worldwide and yet they would contribute to achieve some of the jointly agreed development goals set for 2015.

Finally, Gyeke Tanoh’s intervention, of Third World Network Africa, points out the huge imbalance accumulated in global trade, in terms of its structure and governance, dimensions which pose a real challenge to discuss a consensual proposal in Doha, aimed at solving it. The example used by Tanoh limits itself to the African reality, where trade liberalization has privileged a growth pattern based on raw material exports, which have yielded great profit for the invested capital but have decapitalized sectors that are strategic to broad-based financial and social development, such as manufacture and agriculture. At the same time, the region has been exposed to risks connected with international prices and financial shocks by excessively focusing its economies on the production and export of commodities, especially minerals. Additionally, imports are undermining domestic agricultural economies by bringing in subsidized foods, thus exacerbating inequities in local trade and fostering a society dependent on imported or donated foods. This experience is not far from that of Latin American countries. In this way, the idea that trade is serving as a development tool is put in doubt, and an evil scheme of dependency and inequity is rather promoted. As regards this, the proposal is for urgent measures to be developed and implemented at international and national levels so as to deal with vulnerabilities, particularly as regards food sovereignty, an assessment of international trade standards, the implementation of a progressive tax reform regarding the extractive sector, among other specific proposals which deserve greater analysis and discussion.

In conclusion, one can underline the importance of having held this meeting, despite the poor attendance on the part of the countries’ delegates, since a key agenda for discussion in Doha has been provided, in the context of a consensual global institutionality. Crises, such as those we are witnessing at present, seem to give shape to a necessary prelude in order to propose a new global financial, monetary and trade order which promotes a fairer and more balanced development in our countries.

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Source: Choike-Latindadd
Raúl Mauro
Tue Jul 08 2008

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